Trouble at California Dam

A gaping hole has been found in the spillway of the Oroville Dam in northern California.  It is the tallest dam in the US, at 770 feet.  There are some fantastic pictures out on the internet (see here and here for some)  Of course if there is a dam there is likely hydro power, and the Oroville Dam is no exception.  According to the California Department of Water Resources website, the power plant located at the dam can generate 819MW of electricity. (see here)  There is also another 120MW generating facility a little further downstream.  Who knows how things will play out, but it is conceivable that that the ability to run these plants is impaired in the near future.  NERC’s latest long-term reliability assessment shows electricity supplies in California about 11,000MW greater than anticipated demand for the summer of 2017. (NERC report can be found here)  This is over about a 20% reserve margin, when only about 16% is required in the region.  So based on NERC’s assessment it seems like this won’t cause an electric reliability issue, however, if you listen to today’s Calpine conference call it sounds like California has some long-term reliability issues right now, and losing a hydro plant is the last thing the state needs right now.  We will keep an eye on things and see how it all plays out. (you can find the Calpine call here)